Moscow, 9 February 2012
Passenger Cars – Production
Passenger car production in Russia rose 43.9% year on year to 1,738,200 units in January-December 2011 compared to 1,207,500 units in 2010. The car output has for the first time exceeded the pre-crisis 2008 level. (Car output was 599,300 units in 2009 and 1,469,900 units in 2008).
Passenger cars – Sales
Passenger car sales in Russia rose 39.4% year on year to 2,530,300 units in 2011 compared to 1,815,300 units in 2010. (Car sales were 392,200 units in 2009 and 692,100 units in 2008).
Sales of imported used cars (over 3-year old) sharply fell in 2011-2010 to only 7-8 thousand vehicles (compared to 13,300 units in 2009 and 375,600 units in 2008).
According to ASM Holding analysts’ data, natural persons imported 132,100 cars in 2011 vs. 115,000 cars in 2010 (up 14.9%). Of the 2011 total, 122,200 units were used cars and 9,900 units were new cars. (Natural persons imported 74,100 cars in 2009 and 378,800 cars in 2008).
Trucks – Production
Truck production in Russia rose 33.2% year on year to 203,950 units in 2011 compared to 153,100 units in 2010. (Truck output was 91,200 units in 2009 and 256,700 units in 2008).
Truck production still lags behind the pre-crisis 2008 mark.
Trucks – Sales
Truck sales in Russia rose 58.7% year on year to 331,900 units in 2011 vs. 209,200 units in 2010 (compared to 117,100 units in 2009 and 430,300 units in 2008).
Sales of foreign-branded new trucks have not yet reached the pre-crisis 2008 level.
Buses – Production
Production of buses (including minibuses) in Russia rose 3.5% to 46,800 units in 2011 vs. 45,200 units in 2010 (compared to 34,900 units in 2009 and 67,010 units in 2008).
The total bus output in 2011 reached only 69.8% of the pre-crisis 2008 level.
The number of minibuses produced in 2011 was 26,200 units vs. 29,100 units in 2010 (down 10% due to decrease of production of UAZ and Fiat Ducato models).
Buses – Sales
Bus sales rose 19.8% to 60,600 units in 2011 vs. 50,600 units in 2010. Of the 2011 total, sales of new foreign-branded models were up 57.2% to 20,170 buses including 7,400 vehicles assembled in Russia.
ASM Holding Analyst Company’s forecast of motor vehicle production in Russia for 2012
- Domestic models – 500,000 units
- Foreign models – 1,100,000 to 1,200,000 units
- Domestic models – 150,000 to 160,000 units
- Foreign models – 30,000 to 40,000 units
ASM Holding Analyst Company’s forecast of motor vehicle market in Russia for 2012
The car market by estimation of ASM Holding can amount, as an optimum alternative, to between 2.6m and 2.65m units. Also, a decline of the market to 2.4m is not ruled out as a result of Russia’s accession to the WTO.
New domestic model sales will decrease on account of increase of used imports from the Customs Union and WTO member countries.
New car imports will virtually remain on the 2011 level.
In the truck segment of the market, the situation in 2012 might be worse than last year due to unprecedented huge import of new trucks in 2011, as well as to the WTO accession from the second half-year 2012. The truck market is going to remain on the level of 340,000 to 350,000 sales, but its structure could change following decrease of sales volumes with Russian manufacturers, such as KAMAZ, GAZ, etc.
The bus market is expected to keep the 2011 level or slightly grow (up 5-10%); however the domestic manufacturers will continue to lose their share due to Russia’s accession to the WTO and with increase of foreign makes’ local assembly.