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MainEventsRussian automotive industry 2011 results and the auto market development prospects in view of Russia’s accession to the WTO

Russian automotive industry 2011 results and the auto market development prospects in view of Russia’s accession to the WTO

ASM Holding

Moscow, 9 February 2012

PRESS RELEASE

Passenger Cars – Production

Passenger car production in Russia rose 43.9% year on year to 1,738,200 units in January-December 2011 compared to 1,207,500 units in 2010. The car output has for the first time exceeded the pre-crisis 2008 level. (Car output was 599,300 units in 2009 and 1,469,900 units in 2008).

  • Output of domestic car models was 663,100 units (up 13.4%) in 2011 vs. 584,800 units in 2010. (Domestic car model output was 316,900 units in 2009 and 877,100 units in 2008).
  • Output of foreign-branded car models rose by 72.6% in total to 1,075,000 units and by 88.5% in particular under the “industrial assembly regime” to 780,200 units in 2011. (Foreign-branded car output was 282,400 units including 192,200 “industrially-assembled” units in 2009 and 592,800 units including 376,600 “industrially-assembled” units in 2008).

Passenger cars – Sales

Passenger car sales in Russia rose 39.4% year on year to 2,530,300 units in 2011 compared to 1,815,300 units in 2010. (Car sales were 392,200 units in 2009 and 692,100 units in 2008).

  • Domestic car model sales were 628,900 units (up 10.3%) in 2011 vs. 510,300 units in 2010. (The 2009 sales were 392,200 units, and the 2008 sales were 692,100 units).
  • Foreign-branded new car sales including foreign models assembled in Russia rose 53.1% to 1,894,000 units in 2011 vs. 1,237,000 units in 2010 (compared to 1,012,600 units in 2009 and 2,053,800 units in 2008). Of the total, locally produced foreign model sales were 1,045,800 units in 2011 vs. 632,300 units in 2010, up 65.4% (compared to 362,700 units in 2009 and 586,500 units in 2008).

Sales of imported used cars (over 3-year old) sharply fell in 2011-2010 to only 7-8 thousand vehicles (compared to 13,300 units in 2009 and 375,600 units in 2008).

Note:

  • The car market sales do not include light commercial vehicles.
  • Sales of new and used foreign-branded vehicles exclude imports by natural persons.

According to ASM Holding analysts’ data, natural persons imported 132,100 cars in 2011 vs. 115,000 cars in 2010 (up 14.9%). Of the 2011 total, 122,200 units were used cars and 9,900 units were new cars. (Natural persons imported 74,100 cars in 2009 and 378,800 cars in 2008).

Trucks – Production

Truck production in Russia rose 33.2% year on year to 203,950 units in 2011 compared to 153,100 units in 2010. (Truck output was 91,200 units in 2009 and 256,700 units in 2008).

Truck production still lags behind the pre-crisis 2008 mark.

  • Output of domestic truck models was 180,400 units in 2011 vs. 137,200 units in 2010, up 31.5%. (Domestic truck model output was 84,200 units in 2009 and 238,830 units in 2008).
  • Output of foreign-branded truck models rose 39.1% to 23,500 units in 2011 vs. 16,900 units in 2010 (compared to 7,000 units in 2009 and 18,310 units in 2008).

Trucks – Sales

Truck sales in Russia rose 58.7% year on year to 331,900 units in 2011 vs. 209,200 units in 2010 (compared to 117,100 units in 2009 and 430,300 units in 2008).

  • Domestic truck model sales rose 36.4% to 165,300 units in 2011 vs. 121,200 units in 2010 (compared to 75,800 units in 2009 and 203,700 units in 2008).
  • Foreign-branded new truck sales including foreign models assembled in Russia rose 97.4% to 150,540 units in 2011 vs. 76,250 units in 2010 (compared to 27,680 units in 2009 and 163,650 units in 2008).

Sales of foreign-branded new trucks have not yet reached the pre-crisis 2008 level.

  • Sales of locally assembled new foreign trucks rose 56.4% to 21,340 units in 2011 vs. 13,640 units in 2010.
  • Sales of imported used trucks were 16,120 units in 2011 vs. 11,710 units in 2010 (compared to 16,210 units in 2009 and 62,990 units in 2008).

Buses – Production

Production of buses (including minibuses) in Russia rose 3.5% to 46,800 units in 2011 vs. 45,200 units in 2010 (compared to 34,900 units in 2009 and 67,010 units in 2008).

  • Domestic bus model production rose just 1.8% to 39,500 units; of them 884 vehicles were ‘work team buses’ (up 45.6%). Foreign-branded bus output rose 14.2% to 7,300 units.

The total bus output in 2011 reached only 69.8% of the pre-crisis 2008 level.

The number of minibuses produced in 2011 was 26,200 units vs. 29,100 units in 2010 (down 10% due to decrease of production of UAZ and Fiat Ducato models).

Buses – Sales

Bus sales rose 19.8% to 60,600 units in 2011 vs. 50,600 units in 2010. Of the 2011 total, sales of new foreign-branded models were up 57.2% to 20,170 buses including 7,400 vehicles assembled in Russia.

ASM Holding Analyst Company’s forecast of motor vehicle production in Russia for 2012

  1. The Company’s analysts estimate passenger car production in 2012 to be 1,600,000 to 1,700,000 units, including:

- Domestic models – 500,000 units

- Foreign models – 1,100,000 to 1,200,000 units

  1. Truck production is expected to be 180,000 to 200,000 units, including:

- Domestic models – 150,000 to 160,000 units

- Foreign models – 30,000 to 40,000 units

  1. Bus production forecast is 45,000 to 50,000 units.

ASM Holding Analyst Company’s forecast of motor vehicle market in Russia for 2012

The car market by estimation of ASM Holding can amount, as an optimum alternative, to between 2.6m and 2.65m units. Also, a decline of the market to 2.4m is not ruled out as a result of Russia’s accession to the WTO.

New domestic model sales will decrease on account of increase of used imports from the Customs Union and WTO member countries.

New car imports will virtually remain on the 2011 level.

In the truck segment of the market, the situation in 2012 might be worse than last year due to unprecedented huge import of new trucks in 2011, as well as to the WTO accession from the second half-year 2012. The truck market is going to remain on the level of 340,000 to 350,000 sales, but its structure could change following decrease of sales volumes with Russian manufacturers, such as KAMAZ, GAZ, etc.

The bus market is expected to keep the 2011 level or slightly grow (up 5-10%); however the domestic manufacturers will continue to lose their share due to Russia’s accession to the WTO and with increase of foreign makes’ local assembly.

Latest Publications
Statistical Review of the Bus Market The review comprises statistical data on bus production, sales and import; 20 tables reflecting bus production, sales and imports for 11 years, bus parc broken down by Russia’s federal districts and by class; technical specification of buses produced in Russia and Belarus.
Statistical Review of the Truck Market The review comprises statistical data reflecting production and sales dynamics of trucks manufactured in Russia, Belarus and Ukraine, as well as truck imports by GVW (up to 5t, 5-20t and above 20t) for 11 years; truck parc broken down by Russia’s federal districts; technical specification of truck base models.
Passenger Car Russian Sales Data The report contains statistical data on new car sales in Russia by model and class segment (comprising over 400 models) in 2009, 2010 and 2011.
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